First 2018/19 Seasonal Determination

 Monday 2 July, 2018

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the first 2018/19 seasonal determination, an updated outlook, and the first risk of spill assessment for the new water year.

The Murray system starts 2018/19 with a seasonal determination of 41 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Goulburn and Loddon systems both start with 32 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system starts 2018/19 with a seasonal determination of 100 per cent HRWS.

The Broken and Bullarook systems both start 2018/19 with 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said after a dry and warm autumn, inflows to the major storages in the historically wetter months have been low so far.

“Northern Victorian catchments were very dry, but we have started to see a response to rain in recent weeks,” said Dr Bailey. “This means we are more likely to see runoff entering the storages when rain falls. We need more rain to increase storage levels and the seasonal determinations.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria is more likely during the July to September period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring.”

Dr Bailey said the dry outlook would not affect water deliveries in the northern Victorian water systems.

“Even without a seasonal determination, carried over allocation can be delivered in the Broken and Bullarook systems,” Dr Bailey said.

Dr Bailey advised entitlement holders to use the seasonal determination outlooks and weather information when planning their water needs in 2018/19.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, July 2 are:

Water SystemHigh-Reliability Water ShareLow-Reliability Water Share
Murray 41% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 32% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 32% 0%
Bullarook 0% 0%

 

Risk of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The risk of spill in Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems are all above the 10 per cent threshold needed to declare a low risk of spill. The risk of spill in the Murray system during 2018/19 is about 59 per cent. The risk of spill in the Goulburn system is about 12 per cent and the Campaspe system has a 24 per cent risk.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade applications will start to be processed from 11:00 am on July 2, 2018 when the Victorian Water Register opens for the new water year.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill in the Murray system is above 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the volume traded from Victoria to New South Wales. 

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on July 10, 2018.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 232 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. 

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Trade from the Broken system re-opens at the start of each water year and is allowed when the Broken system’s IVT account owes less than 1,500 ML to the Goulburn system. 

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, from July 2, 2018 when the Water Register reopens. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated has recently been added to the allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) has announced that trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Tuesday 10 July 2018.
  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 16 July 2018 and will include an updated outlook.

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