Seasonal Determination update season 2018/19

 Monday 1 October, 2018

Update to the 2018/19 seasonal determinations


The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 78 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 82 per cent HRWS. 

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 70 per cent HRWS to 74 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases by 2 per cent HRWS to 11 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system increases from 100 per cent HRWS and 25 per cent low‑reliability water shares (LRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS and 51 per cent LRWS. 

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the modest improvements came from a combination of more water reaching the major storages than was estimated and lower than expected system losses in some systems.

“While flows into the major storages have been marginally higher than anticipated since the last seasonal determination update, they have been well below-average for this time of season and the catchments continue to dry with very little recent rainfall,” said Dr Bailey.

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks continue to favour drier conditions.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall is more likely across all of northern Victoria during the October to December period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau also says there is a 50 per cent chance that an El Niño event will develop in spring and the threshold for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has been exceeded. Both an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically reduces rainfall in south-eastern Australia. 

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, October 1 are:

Water SystemHigh-Reliability Water ShareLow-Reliability Water Share
Murray 82% 0%
Broken 11% 0%
Goulburn 74% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 74% 0%
Bullarook 100% 51%

 

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on October 10, 2018.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 227 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations continue in October. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website, www.gmwater.com.au/water-resources/managing-water-storages.


The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading#AllocationTradeOpportunities.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/interstate-water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next risk of spill in the Murray system will be issued on Wednesday October 10, 2018
  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement and updated outlook will be released on Monday October 15, 2018.

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